{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/keithpreble/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/Replication Files for FPA/goldilocks.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res} 2 Feb 2023, 20:33:53

{com}. do "/var/folders/4b/3p_gyykn4zj4918czjpxd1f80000gn/T//SD03885.000000"
{txt}
{com}. *Stata code for "Just Right"
. 
. *Set working directory
. cd "/Users/keithpreble/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/Replication Files for FPA/"
{res}/Users/keithpreble/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/Replication Files for FPA
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Set environment - install packages if not loaded
. clear all
{res}{txt}
{com}. *ssc install brewscheme
. set scheme plotplainblind
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Load data set
. use "goldilocks.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. *REGRESSION MODELS for Table 4a and 4b
. *Code also include the data used to create Tables 1-3, too.
. *Also, the code for the figures is here, too. 
. *I created separate .do files for each of the figures, too.
. 
. ******* MODEL 1: Median ****************
. eststo M1: logit allbuster_median lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp i.DefPactPT i.sanct_sev idealpointdistance duration arcsin_min nobust_median nobustsq_median nobustcb_mean if P_Sender !=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-59888.765}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -34957.43}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32371.501}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32091.696}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32076.885}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32073.413}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32073.135}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32073.134}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 55}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:95,931}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:13})}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:17787.07}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-32073.134}{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.4645}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}       allbuster_median{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.383957{col 37}{space 2} .2682025{col 48}{space 1}    5.16{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .8582902{col 78}{space 3} 1.909625
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3100476{col 37}{space 2} .0053267{col 48}{space 1}   58.21{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2996074{col 78}{space 3} .3204878
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.6887932{col 37}{space 2} .0721092{col 48}{space 1}   -9.55{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.8301246{col 78}{space 3}-.5474617
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0250165{col 37}{space 2} .0020389{col 48}{space 1}   12.27{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0210203{col 78}{space 3} .0290127
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.307121{col 37}{space 2} .2016008{col 48}{space 1}    6.48{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .911991{col 78}{space 3} 1.702252
{txt}{space 12}1.DefPactPT {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2566814{col 37}{space 2} .0426703{col 48}{space 1}    6.02{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .173049{col 78}{space 3} .3403137
{txt}{space 7}1.sanct_severity {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1513768{col 37}{space 2} .0234837{col 48}{space 1}   -6.45{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -.197404{col 78}{space 3}-.1053496
{txt}{space 5}idealpointdistance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.015401{col 37}{space 2} .0117385{col 48}{space 1}   -1.31{col 57}{space 3}0.190{col 65}{space 4} -.038408{col 78}{space 3}  .007606
{txt}{space 15}duration {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1795746{col 37}{space 2} .0032858{col 48}{space 1}   54.65{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1731346{col 78}{space 3} .1860145
{txt}{space 9}arcsin_mindist {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0987163{col 37}{space 2} .0061087{col 48}{space 1}  -16.16{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.1106891{col 78}{space 3}-.0867435
{txt}{space 10}nobust_median {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.8177383{col 37}{space 2} .0098155{col 48}{space 1}  -83.31{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.8369763{col 78}{space 3}-.7985003
{txt}{space 8}nobustsq_median {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0155204{col 37}{space 2} .0009991{col 48}{space 1}   15.53{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0135622{col 78}{space 3} .0174787
{txt}{space 10}nobustcb_mean {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0001518{col 37}{space 2} 9.16e-06{col 48}{space 1}  -16.57{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0001697{col 78}{space 3}-.0001338
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.831133{col 37}{space 2} .6457641{col 48}{space 1}   -1.29{col 57}{space 3}0.198{col 65}{space 4}-2.096807{col 78}{space 3} .4345414
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. *Data that comes from this command produces the # of incidents of sanctions busting 
. *and is added to Table 3 & Table 4a:
. tab allbuster_median if e(sample)

{txt}allbuster_m {c |}
      edian {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}     65,558       68.34       68.34
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}     30,373       31.66      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}     95,931      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. ******* MODEL 2: Mean ****************
. eststo M2: logit allbuster_mean lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp i.DefPactPT i.sanct_sev idealpointdistance duration arcsin_min nobust_mean nobustsq_mean nobustcb_mean if P_Sender !=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-34567.496}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-22065.039}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-17545.266}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:  -16442.5}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16376.988}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16366.731}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16364.123}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16363.884}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16363.882}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16363.882}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 55}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:95,931}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:13})}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:12400.34}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-16363.882}{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.5266}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}         allbuster_mean{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 4.756252{col 37}{space 2} .3502037{col 48}{space 1}   13.58{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 4.069865{col 78}{space 3} 5.442639
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}   .60185{col 37}{space 2} .0088133{col 48}{space 1}   68.29{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .5845761{col 78}{space 3} .6191238
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2911778{col 37}{space 2} .1076656{col 48}{space 1}    2.70{col 57}{space 3}0.007{col 65}{space 4}  .080157{col 78}{space 3} .5021985
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0093383{col 37}{space 2} .0030603{col 48}{space 1}   -3.05{col 57}{space 3}0.002{col 65}{space 4}-.0153364{col 78}{space 3}-.0033403
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.781177{col 37}{space 2} .4086645{col 48}{space 1}    4.36{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .9802088{col 78}{space 3} 2.582144
{txt}{space 12}1.DefPactPT {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .5334458{col 37}{space 2} .0564867{col 48}{space 1}    9.44{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .422734{col 78}{space 3} .6441576
{txt}{space 7}1.sanct_severity {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0719398{col 37}{space 2} .0340508{col 48}{space 1}   -2.11{col 57}{space 3}0.035{col 65}{space 4}-.1386781{col 78}{space 3}-.0052014
{txt}{space 5}idealpointdistance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1204463{col 37}{space 2} .0162656{col 48}{space 1}    7.40{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0885662{col 78}{space 3} .1523263
{txt}{space 15}duration {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1426663{col 37}{space 2} .0030686{col 48}{space 1}   46.49{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .136652{col 78}{space 3} .1486806
{txt}{space 9}arcsin_mindist {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2361231{col 37}{space 2} .0074604{col 48}{space 1}  -31.65{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.2507451{col 78}{space 3} -.221501
{txt}{space 12}nobust_mean {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.004933{col 37}{space 2} .0225736{col 48}{space 1}  -44.52{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.049176{col 78}{space 3}-.9606895
{txt}{space 10}nobustsq_mean {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0494674{col 37}{space 2}  .004524{col 48}{space 1}   10.93{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0406005{col 78}{space 3} .0583342
{txt}{space 10}nobustcb_mean {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0009745{col 37}{space 2} .0001806{col 48}{space 1}   -5.40{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0013284{col 78}{space 3}-.0006205
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-12.80803{col 37}{space 2} .9685714{col 48}{space 1}  -13.22{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -14.7064{col 78}{space 3}-10.90967
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 790 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Data that comes from this command produces the # of incidents of sanctions busting 
. *and is added to Table 3 & Table 4a:
. tab allbuster_mean if e(sample)

{txt}allbuster_m {c |}
        ean {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}     84,734       88.33       88.33
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}     11,197       11.67      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}     95,931      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Not necessary for the paper but can be run to see how the marginal effects change as DV coding shifts:
. *margins, at(lnlaggdpt=(11.65844(0.5)23.14414))
. *marginsplot
. 
. ******* MODEL 3: 1 Percent ****************
. *1 percent - this threshold serves as the "baseline" for the paper for all the figures and tables
. *All figures and tables 1 and 2 are derived from this Regression Model unless noted otherwise
. 
. eststo M3a: logit allbuster_1pct lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp i.DefPactPT i.sanct_sev idealpointdistance duration arcsin_min nobust_1pct nobustsq_1pct nobustcb_1pct if P_Sender !=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-29189.492}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-20251.534}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-15190.446}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13519.223}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13414.797}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13400.755}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13395.987}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13395.151}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13395.129}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13395.129}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 55}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:95,931}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:13})}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:10728.77}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-13395.129}{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.5411}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}         allbuster_1pct{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 4.743398{col 37}{space 2} .3729072{col 48}{space 1}   12.72{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 4.012514{col 78}{space 3} 5.474283
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .6584669{col 37}{space 2} .0098228{col 48}{space 1}   67.03{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .6392146{col 78}{space 3} .6777193
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .4573434{col 37}{space 2} .1244979{col 48}{space 1}    3.67{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2133319{col 78}{space 3} .7013549
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0146015{col 37}{space 2} .0035464{col 48}{space 1}   -4.12{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0215522{col 78}{space 3}-.0076507
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.749833{col 37}{space 2} .3363199{col 48}{space 1}    5.20{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.090659{col 78}{space 3} 2.409008
{txt}{space 12}1.DefPactPT {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .6073719{col 37}{space 2} .0610314{col 48}{space 1}    9.95{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .4877525{col 78}{space 3} .7269912
{txt}{space 7}1.sanct_severity {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0653878{col 37}{space 2} .0377758{col 48}{space 1}   -1.73{col 57}{space 3}0.083{col 65}{space 4}-.1394269{col 78}{space 3} .0086514
{txt}{space 5}idealpointdistance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1503052{col 37}{space 2} .0182034{col 48}{space 1}    8.26{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1146271{col 78}{space 3} .1859833
{txt}{space 15}duration {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1403675{col 37}{space 2} .0034657{col 48}{space 1}   40.50{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1335749{col 78}{space 3} .1471601
{txt}{space 9}arcsin_mindist {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2486523{col 37}{space 2} .0079956{col 48}{space 1}  -31.10{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.2643234{col 78}{space 3}-.2329812
{txt}{space 12}nobust_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.076889{col 37}{space 2}  .023732{col 48}{space 1}  -45.38{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.123403{col 78}{space 3}-1.030375
{txt}{space 10}nobustsq_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0594659{col 37}{space 2} .0045313{col 48}{space 1}   13.12{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0505847{col 78}{space 3} .0683471
{txt}{space 10}nobustcb_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0012674{col 37}{space 2} .0001824{col 48}{space 1}   -6.95{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0016248{col 78}{space 3}  -.00091
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-15.34225{col 37}{space 2} 1.113647{col 48}{space 1}  -13.78{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-17.52496{col 78}{space 3}-13.15955
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 1056 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Data that comes from this command produces the # of incidents of sanctions busting 
. *and is added Table 4a; the results of this command are communicated solely in the text:
. tab allbuster_1pct if e(sample)

{txt}allbuster_1 {c |}
        pct {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}     87,225       90.92       90.92
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      8,706        9.08      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}     95,931      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. *This code is used to create Figure 1:
. graph bar (sum) allbuster_1pct if e(sample), over(target_bust, relabel(1 `""Smallest" "($145m-$973m)""' ///
>         2 `""Small" "($973m-$6.42b)""'  ///
>         3 `""Medium" "($6.42b-$282b)""'  ///
>         4 `""Large" "($282b-$1.87t)""'  ///
>         5 `""Largest" "($1.87t-$11.26t)""')) ///
>     blabel(bar, size(small)) title("Sanctions Busting Events Across Target's Economic Size") ///
>         ytitle("Sanctions Busting Events") b1title("Target's Economic Size")
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *This code is used to create Table 1:
. table targetname if e(sample), stat(mean nobust_1pct)
{res}
{smcl}
{reset}{...}
{hline 30}{c -}{c TT}{c -}{c -}{hline 8}
{space 30} {c |}  {space 4}Mean
{hline 30}{c -}{c +}{c -}{c -}{hline 8}
Target country name{space 11} {c |}  {space 8}
  Afghanistan{space 17} {c |}  {result:3.256287}
  Albania{space 21} {c |}  {result:1.579399}
  Algeria{space 21} {c |}  {result:.9437086}
  Angola{space 22} {c |}  {result:3.775832}
  Argentina{space 19} {c |}  {space 1}{result:2.64125}
  Armenia{space 21} {c |}  {result:12.73468}
  Azerbaijan{space 18} {c |}  {result:5.499376}
  Belarus{space 21} {c |}  {result:.7702523}
  Bolivia{space 21} {c |}  {space 1}{result:1.33557}
  Brazil{space 22} {c |}  {result:2.820856}
  Burundi{space 21} {c |}  {result:.9183673}
  Cambodia{space 20} {c |}  {result:6.129604}
  Cameroon{space 20} {c |}  {result:3.165205}
  Canada{space 22} {c |}  {space 7}{result:0}
  Central African Republic{space 4} {c |}  {result:.9342561}
  Chile{space 23} {c |}  {result:5.875834}
  China{space 23} {c |}  {result:10.08793}
  Colombia{space 20} {c |}  {result:.9287305}
  Cote d'Ivoire{space 15} {c |}  {result:2.574422}
  Cuba{space 24} {c |}  {result:10.96001}
  Democratic Republic of Congo {c |}  {result:3.328348}
  Ecuador{space 21} {c |}  {result:1.414201}
  Egypt{space 23} {c |}  {result:2.009537}
  El Salvador{space 17} {c |}  {result:1.667183}
  Equatorial Guinea{space 11} {c |}  {result:4.671096}
  Estonia{space 21} {c |}  {result:3.970624}
  Ethiopia{space 20} {c |}  {result:6.131655}
  Fiji{space 24} {c |}  {space 1}{result:4.22107}
  France{space 22} {c |}  {result:1.081465}
  Gambia{space 22} {c |}  {result:1.964824}
  Georgia{space 21} {c |}  {result:2.670408}
  Grenada{space 21} {c |}  {space 7}{result:0}
  Guatemala{space 19} {c |}  {result:13.02934}
  Guinea{space 22} {c |}  {result:2.015326}
  Guinea-Bissau{space 15} {c |}  {result:.4740741}
  Haiti{space 23} {c |}  {result:1.589857}
  Honduras{space 20} {c |}  {space 7}{result:0}
  India{space 23} {c |}  {result:1.234699}
  Indonesia{space 19} {c |}  {result:2.190205}
  Iran{space 24} {c |}  {result:11.94126}
  Iraq{space 24} {c |}  {result:4.249755}
  Israel{space 22} {c |}  {result:9.572632}
  Japan{space 23} {c |}  {result:.5093633}
  Jordan{space 22} {c |}  {result:2.957031}
  Kazakhstan{space 18} {c |}  {result:1.712838}
  Kenya{space 23} {c |}  {result:1.341629}
  Latvia{space 22} {c |}  {result:3.231379}
  Lebanon{space 21} {c |}  {result:5.510617}
  Liberia{space 21} {c |}  {result:3.605611}
  Libya{space 23} {c |}  {result:9.704476}
  Macedonia{space 19} {c |}  {result:.4703196}
  Malawi{space 22} {c |}  {space 6}{result:.5}
  Malaysia{space 20} {c |}  {result:2.472727}
  Malta{space 23} {c |}  {space 7}{result:0}
  Myanmar{space 21} {c |}  {result:10.30967}
  Nepal{space 23} {c |}  {result:.5474453}
  Netherlands{space 17} {c |}  {result:.5063291}
  New Zealand{space 17} {c |}  {space 7}{result:0}
  Nicaragua{space 19} {c |}  {result:2.441426}
  Niger{space 23} {c |}  {result:1.591036}
  Nigeria{space 21} {c |}  {result:3.079848}
  North Korea{space 17} {c |}  {result:32.96776}
  Pakistan{space 20} {c |}  {result:5.157273}
  Panama{space 22} {c |}  {result:1.387195}
  Paraguay{space 20} {c |}  {result:1.896648}
  Peru{space 24} {c |}  {result:1.569348}
  Poland{space 22} {c |}  {result:2.654592}
  Portugal{space 20} {c |}  {space 1}{result:5.59539}
  Romania{space 21} {c |}  {result:2.114082}
  Russia{space 22} {c |}  {result:7.334622}
  Rwanda{space 22} {c |}  {space 1}{result:.537037}
  Sierra Leone{space 16} {c |}  {result:.4966443}
  Somalia{space 21} {c |}  {result:7.310289}
  South Africa{space 16} {c |}  {result:9.045055}
  Sri Lanka{space 19} {c |}  {space 1}{result:1.68125}
  Sudan{space 23} {c |}  {result:10.57402}
  Suriname{space 20} {c |}  {space 1}{result:4.08871}
  Syria{space 23} {c |}  {result:11.20368}
  Thailand{space 20} {c |}  {result:.4982332}
  Togo{space 24} {c |}  {result:7.101985}
  Tunisia{space 21} {c |}  {result:1.231959}
  Turkey{space 22} {c |}  {result:4.051604}
  Turkmenistan{space 16} {c |}  {result:2.695652}
  Uganda{space 22} {c |}  {result:2.734177}
  Ukraine{space 21} {c |}  {result:2.206759}
  United Kingdom{space 14} {c |}  {result:10.61989}
  United States{space 15} {c |}  {result:.5044248}
  Uruguay{space 21} {c |}  {result:2.404215}
  Uzbekistan{space 18} {c |}  {result:1.785024}
  Vietnam{space 21} {c |}  {result:10.69196}
  Yemen{space 23} {c |}  {result:3.293578}
  Yugoslavia/Serbia{space 11} {c |}  {result:5.790698}
  Zambia{space 22} {c |}  {result:.9597523}
  Zimbabwe{space 20} {c |}  {result:3.656832}
  Total{space 23} {c |}  {result:6.656451}
{hline 30}{c -}{c BT}{c -}{c -}{hline 8}

{com}. *copy the data to Excel, sort and create a Table for Word
. 
. *This code is used to create Table 2:
. table targetname if e(sample), stat(sum allbuster_1pct)
{res}
{smcl}
{reset}{...}
{hline 30}{c -}{c TT}{c -}{c -}{hline 5}
{space 30} {c |}  Total
{hline 30}{c -}{c +}{c -}{c -}{hline 5}
Target country name{space 11} {c |}  {space 5}
  Afghanistan{space 17} {c |}  {space 3}{result:72}
  Albania{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:67}
  Algeria{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:19}
  Angola{space 22} {c |}  {space 2}{result:163}
  Argentina{space 19} {c |}  {space 3}{result:60}
  Armenia{space 21} {c |}  {space 4}{result:0}
  Azerbaijan{space 18} {c |}  {space 3}{result:66}
  Belarus{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:29}
  Bolivia{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:20}
  Brazil{space 22} {c |}  {space 2}{result:127}
  Burundi{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:25}
  Cambodia{space 20} {c |}  {space 2}{result:161}
  Cameroon{space 20} {c |}  {space 3}{result:52}
  Canada{space 22} {c |}  {space 4}{result:0}
  Central African Republic{space 4} {c |}  {space 3}{result:23}
  Chile{space 23} {c |}  {space 2}{result:231}
  China{space 23} {c |}  {space 2}{result:306}
  Colombia{space 20} {c |}  {space 3}{result:28}
  Cote d'Ivoire{space 15} {c |}  {space 2}{result:149}
  Cuba{space 24} {c |}  {space 2}{result:446}
  Democratic Republic of Congo {c |}  {space 2}{result:155}
  Ecuador{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:47}
  Egypt{space 23} {c |}  {space 3}{result:67}
  El Salvador{space 17} {c |}  {space 3}{result:42}
  Equatorial Guinea{space 11} {c |}  {space 3}{result:40}
  Estonia{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:83}
  Ethiopia{space 20} {c |}  {space 2}{result:190}
  Fiji{space 24} {c |}  {space 2}{result:135}
  France{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:19}
  Gambia{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:39}
  Georgia{space 21} {c |}  {space 2}{result:108}
  Grenada{space 21} {c |}  {space 4}{result:0}
  Guatemala{space 19} {c |}  {space 3}{result:85}
  Guinea{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:95}
  Guinea-Bissau{space 15} {c |}  {space 4}{result:6}
  Haiti{space 23} {c |}  {space 3}{result:72}
  Honduras{space 20} {c |}  {space 4}{result:0}
  India{space 23} {c |}  {space 2}{result:167}
  Indonesia{space 19} {c |}  {space 2}{result:128}
  Iran{space 24} {c |}  {space 2}{result:328}
  Iraq{space 24} {c |}  {space 3}{result:86}
  Israel{space 22} {c |}  {space 2}{result:187}
  Japan{space 23} {c |}  {space 3}{result:16}
  Jordan{space 22} {c |}  {space 2}{result:103}
  Kazakhstan{space 18} {c |}  {space 3}{result:30}
  Kenya{space 23} {c |}  {space 3}{result:40}
  Latvia{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:77}
  Lebanon{space 21} {c |}  {space 2}{result:157}
  Liberia{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:55}
  Libya{space 23} {c |}  {space 2}{result:255}
  Macedonia{space 19} {c |}  {space 3}{result:15}
  Malawi{space 22} {c |}  {space 4}{result:3}
  Malaysia{space 20} {c |}  {space 4}{result:1}
  Malta{space 23} {c |}  {space 4}{result:0}
  Myanmar{space 21} {c |}  {space 2}{result:206}
  Nepal{space 23} {c |}  {space 4}{result:8}
  Netherlands{space 17} {c |}  {space 4}{result:8}
  New Zealand{space 17} {c |}  {space 4}{result:0}
  Nicaragua{space 19} {c |}  {space 2}{result:126}
  Niger{space 23} {c |}  {space 3}{result:35}
  Nigeria{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:67}
  North Korea{space 17} {c |}  {space 3}{result:59}
  Pakistan{space 20} {c |}  {space 2}{result:332}
  Panama{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:28}
  Paraguay{space 20} {c |}  {space 3}{result:15}
  Peru{space 24} {c |}  {space 2}{result:164}
  Poland{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:60}
  Portugal{space 20} {c |}  {space 2}{result:136}
  Romania{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:98}
  Russia{space 22} {c |}  {space 2}{result:261}
  Rwanda{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:12}
  Sierra Leone{space 16} {c |}  {space 3}{result:10}
  Somalia{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:43}
  South Africa{space 16} {c |}  {space 2}{result:106}
  Sri Lanka{space 19} {c |}  {space 3}{result:26}
  Sudan{space 23} {c |}  {space 2}{result:234}
  Suriname{space 20} {c |}  {space 3}{result:49}
  Syria{space 23} {c |}  {space 2}{result:344}
  Thailand{space 20} {c |}  {space 3}{result:12}
  Togo{space 24} {c |}  {space 2}{result:184}
  Tunisia{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:28}
  Turkey{space 22} {c |}  {space 2}{result:281}
  Turkmenistan{space 16} {c |}  {space 4}{result:0}
  Uganda{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:46}
  Ukraine{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:56}
  United Kingdom{space 14} {c |}  {space 2}{result:270}
  United States{space 15} {c |}  {space 3}{result:11}
  Uruguay{space 21} {c |}  {space 3}{result:13}
  Uzbekistan{space 18} {c |}  {space 3}{result:40}
  Vietnam{space 21} {c |}  {space 2}{result:209}
  Yemen{space 23} {c |}  {space 3}{result:72}
  Yugoslavia/Serbia{space 11} {c |}  {space 4}{result:4}
  Zambia{space 22} {c |}  {space 3}{result:32}
  Zimbabwe{space 20} {c |}  {space 2}{result:146}
  Total{space 23} {c |}  {result:8,706}
{hline 30}{c -}{c BT}{c -}{c -}{hline 5}

{com}. *copy the data to Excel, sort and create a Table for Word
. 
. *Figure 3
. margins, at(lnlaggdpt=(11.65844(0.5)23.14414))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Predictive margins{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:95,931}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(allbuster_1pct), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:11.65844}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:12.15844}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:12.65844}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:13.15844}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:13.65844}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:14.15844}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:14.65844}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:15.15844}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:15.65844}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:16.15844}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:16.65844}}
{lalign 8:12._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:17.15844}}
{lalign 8:13._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:17.65844}}
{lalign 8:14._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:18.15844}}
{lalign 8:15._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:18.65844}}
{lalign 8:16._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:19.15844}}
{lalign 8:17._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:19.65844}}
{lalign 8:18._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:20.15844}}
{lalign 8:19._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:20.65844}}
{lalign 8:20._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:21.15844}}
{lalign 8:21._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:21.65844}}
{lalign 8:22._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:22.15844}}
{lalign 8:23._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:22.65844}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0848875{col 26}{space 2} .0047129{col 37}{space 1}   18.01{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0756503{col 67}{space 3} .0941246
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .087031{col 26}{space 2} .0040291{col 37}{space 1}   21.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0791342{col 67}{space 3} .0949278
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0889217{col 26}{space 2} .0033836{col 37}{space 1}   26.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}   .08229{col 67}{space 3} .0955534
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0905458{col 26}{space 2} .0027864{col 37}{space 1}   32.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0850845{col 67}{space 3} .0960072
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0918914{col 26}{space 2}  .002248{col 37}{space 1}   40.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0874854{col 67}{space 3} .0962975
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0929487{col 26}{space 2} .0017796{col 37}{space 1}   52.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0894608{col 67}{space 3} .0964366
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0937099{col 26}{space 2}  .001394{col 37}{space 1}   67.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0909778{col 67}{space 3} .0964421
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0941695{col 26}{space 2} .0011054{col 37}{space 1}   85.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .092003{col 67}{space 3} .0963361
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0943241{col 26}{space 2} .0009235{col 37}{space 1}  102.13{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .092514{col 67}{space 3} .0961341
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0941725{col 26}{space 2} .0008398{col 37}{space 1}  112.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0925265{col 67}{space 3} .0958185
{txt}{space 9}11  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0937158{col 26}{space 2} .0008212{col 37}{space 1}  114.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0921062{col 67}{space 3} .0953254
{txt}{space 9}12  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0929575{col 26}{space 2} .0008287{col 37}{space 1}  112.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0913333{col 67}{space 3} .0945816
{txt}{space 9}13  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .091903{col 26}{space 2} .0008377{col 37}{space 1}  109.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0902611{col 67}{space 3} .0935449
{txt}{space 9}14  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0905601{col 26}{space 2} .0008443{col 37}{space 1}  107.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0889054{col 67}{space 3} .0922149
{txt}{space 9}15  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0889386{col 26}{space 2} .0008623{col 37}{space 1}  103.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0872486{col 67}{space 3} .0906287
{txt}{space 9}16  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0870504{col 26}{space 2} .0009189{col 37}{space 1}   94.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0852495{col 67}{space 3} .0888513
{txt}{space 9}17  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0849092{col 26}{space 2} .0010418{col 37}{space 1}   81.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0828674{col 67}{space 3}  .086951
{txt}{space 9}18  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0825308{col 26}{space 2} .0012446{col 37}{space 1}   66.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0800915{col 67}{space 3} .0849701
{txt}{space 9}19  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0799323{col 26}{space 2} .0015236{col 37}{space 1}   52.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .076946{col 67}{space 3} .0829186
{txt}{space 9}20  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0771328{col 26}{space 2} .0018665{col 37}{space 1}   41.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0734745{col 67}{space 3} .0807911
{txt}{space 9}21  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0741525{col 26}{space 2}  .002259{col 37}{space 1}   32.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .069725{col 67}{space 3}   .07858
{txt}{space 9}22  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .071013{col 26}{space 2} .0026878{col 37}{space 1}   26.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0657451{col 67}{space 3} .0762809
{txt}{space 9}23  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .067737{col 26}{space 2} .0031407{col 37}{space 1}   21.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0615814{col 67}{space 3} .0738927
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, recastci(rarea) recast(line) /// 
>         ciopt(color(%20)) plotregion(margin(none)) xlabel(,labels angle(45)) ///
>         title("Probability of Sanctions Busting Across Target's Economic Size") ///
>         xtitle("Economic Size, Target (ln GDP)") ///
>         ytitle("Probability of Sanctions Busting") ///
>         ylabel(0.05(0.01).1) xlabel(,format(%9.2f)) 
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:lnlaggdpt}{p_end}
{p 0 4 2}
{txt}(note:  named style
none not found in class
margin,  default attributes used)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *The red dots are placed on the small-, medium-, and larger-sized economies by hand
. 
. *Parsimonious Model is run to create Figure 4:
. *First run the parsimonious logit:
. eststo M3b: logit allbuster_1pct lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp nobust_1pct nobustsq_1pct nobustcb_1pct if P_Sender !=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-41304.616}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32684.675}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-22807.853}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-21321.981}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-21216.824}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-21172.122}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-21145.382}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -21142.46}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -21142.45}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -21142.45}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 55}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:182,882}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:8})}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:17115.52}
{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 9:-21142.45}{txt}{col 55}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 68} = {res}{ralign 8:0.4881}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}         allbuster_1pct{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 8.562142{col 37}{space 2} .3760653{col 48}{space 1}   22.77{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 7.825068{col 78}{space 3} 9.299217
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .7525472{col 37}{space 2} .0071141{col 48}{space 1}  105.78{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .7386039{col 78}{space 3} .7664905
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.516218{col 37}{space 2} .0934954{col 48}{space 1}   16.22{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.332971{col 78}{space 3} 1.699466
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0407443{col 37}{space 2} .0026657{col 48}{space 1}  -15.28{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -.045969{col 78}{space 3}-.0355197
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.285243{col 37}{space 2} .0587415{col 48}{space 1}   21.88{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.170112{col 78}{space 3} 1.400374
{txt}{space 12}nobust_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.189591{col 37}{space 2} .0278524{col 48}{space 1}  -42.71{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -1.24418{col 78}{space 3}-1.135001
{txt}{space 10}nobustsq_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .096722{col 37}{space 2} .0064083{col 48}{space 1}   15.09{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0841619{col 78}{space 3} .1092821
{txt}{space 10}nobustcb_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0024784{col 37}{space 2} .0002884{col 48}{space 1}   -8.59{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0030436{col 78}{space 3}-.0019133
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-28.75637{col 37}{space 2} .8355123{col 48}{space 1}  -34.42{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-30.39394{col 78}{space 3}-27.11879
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 2650 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Generate Figure 4
. margins, at(lnlaggdpt=(11.65844(0.5)23.14414))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Predictive margins{col 56}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:182,882}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(allbuster_1pct), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:11.65844}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:12.15844}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:12.65844}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:13.15844}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:13.65844}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:14.15844}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:14.65844}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:15.15844}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:15.65844}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:16.15844}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:16.65844}}
{lalign 8:12._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:17.15844}}
{lalign 8:13._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:17.65844}}
{lalign 8:14._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:18.15844}}
{lalign 8:15._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:18.65844}}
{lalign 8:16._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:19.15844}}
{lalign 8:17._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:19.65844}}
{lalign 8:18._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:20.15844}}
{lalign 8:19._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:20.65844}}
{lalign 8:20._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:21.15844}}
{lalign 8:21._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:21.65844}}
{lalign 8:22._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:22.15844}}
{lalign 8:23._at: }{space 0}{lalign 9:lnlaggdpt} = {res:{ralign 8:22.65844}}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   std. err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0185893{col 26}{space 2} .0013122{col 37}{space 1}   14.17{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0160174{col 67}{space 3} .0211612
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .022831{col 26}{space 2} .0013036{col 37}{space 1}   17.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0202761{col 67}{space 3}  .025386
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0274053{col 26}{space 2} .0012491{col 37}{space 1}   21.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0249571{col 67}{space 3} .0298535
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0322038{col 26}{space 2} .0011565{col 37}{space 1}   27.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .029937{col 67}{space 3} .0344706
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .037107{col 26}{space 2} .0010374{col 37}{space 1}   35.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0350737{col 67}{space 3} .0391402
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0419906{col 26}{space 2}  .000906{col 37}{space 1}   46.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0402148{col 67}{space 3} .0437664
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0467316{col 26}{space 2}  .000779{col 37}{space 1}   59.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0452049{col 67}{space 3} .0482584
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .051212{col 26}{space 2}  .000673{col 37}{space 1}   76.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0498929{col 67}{space 3} .0525311
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0553221{col 26}{space 2} .0006017{col 37}{space 1}   91.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0541428{col 67}{space 3} .0565014
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .058963{col 26}{space 2} .0005686{col 37}{space 1}  103.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0578485{col 67}{space 3} .0600776
{txt}{space 9}11  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0620486{col 26}{space 2} .0005643{col 37}{space 1}  109.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0609426{col 67}{space 3} .0631547
{txt}{space 9}12  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0645067{col 26}{space 2}  .000573{col 37}{space 1}  112.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0633836{col 67}{space 3} .0656298
{txt}{space 9}13  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0662804{col 26}{space 2} .0005832{col 37}{space 1}  113.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0651374{col 67}{space 3} .0674234
{txt}{space 9}14  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .067329{col 26}{space 2} .0005933{col 37}{space 1}  113.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0661662{col 67}{space 3} .0684918
{txt}{space 9}15  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0676286{col 26}{space 2} .0006134{col 37}{space 1}  110.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0664263{col 67}{space 3} .0688308
{txt}{space 9}16  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0671722{col 26}{space 2} .0006624{col 37}{space 1}  101.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0658739{col 67}{space 3} .0684706
{txt}{space 9}17  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0659704{col 26}{space 2} .0007586{col 37}{space 1}   86.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0644836{col 67}{space 3} .0674572
{txt}{space 9}18  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0640506{col 26}{space 2} .0009087{col 37}{space 1}   70.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0622695{col 67}{space 3} .0658317
{txt}{space 9}19  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0614569{col 26}{space 2} .0011066{col 37}{space 1}   55.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .059288{col 67}{space 3} .0636258
{txt}{space 9}20  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0582495{col 26}{space 2} .0013387{col 37}{space 1}   43.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0556257{col 67}{space 3} .0608733
{txt}{space 9}21  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0545035{col 26}{space 2} .0015895{col 37}{space 1}   34.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0513882{col 67}{space 3} .0576188
{txt}{space 9}22  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0503079{col 26}{space 2} .0018428{col 37}{space 1}   27.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0466961{col 67}{space 3} .0539197
{txt}{space 9}23  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0457641{col 26}{space 2} .0020825{col 37}{space 1}   21.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0416824{col 67}{space 3} .0498458
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, recastci(rarea) recast(line) /// 
>         ciopt(color(%20)) plotregion(margin(none)) xlabel(,labels angle(45)) ///
>         title("Probability of Sanctions Busting Across Target's Size Using Parsimonious Model")    ///
>         xtitle("Economic Size, Target (ln GDP)") ///
>         ytitle("Probability of Sanctions Busting") ///
>         ylabel(0.0(0.01).07) xlabel(,format(%9.2f)) ///
>         xline(15.67) xline(19.46)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:lnlaggdpt}{p_end}
{p 0 4 2}
{txt}(note:  named style
none not found in class
margin,  default attributes used)
{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. *Add the <- medium-sized economies -> label between the xlines manually
. 
. ******* MODEL 4: 1 Standard Deviation ****************
. 
. *1 standard deviation
. eststo M4: logit allbuster_1sd lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp i.DefPactPT i.sanct_sev idealpointdistance duration arcsin_min nobust_1sd nobustsq_1sd nobustcb_1sd if P_Sender !=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-14185.428}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-9806.9569}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-7222.5986}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -6363.208}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6311.7105}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6302.0926}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6298.8197}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6298.2537}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6298.2501}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6298.2501}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 56}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:95,931}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:13})}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:5702.33}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-6298.2501}{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.5560}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}          allbuster_1sd{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 5.862219{col 37}{space 2} .4970141{col 48}{space 1}   11.79{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 4.888089{col 78}{space 3} 6.836349
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .7669613{col 37}{space 2} .0146178{col 48}{space 1}   52.47{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .738311{col 78}{space 3} .7956115
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .4446194{col 37}{space 2} .1868274{col 48}{space 1}    2.38{col 57}{space 3}0.017{col 65}{space 4} .0784444{col 78}{space 3} .8107943
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0167316{col 37}{space 2} .0053487{col 48}{space 1}   -3.13{col 57}{space 3}0.002{col 65}{space 4}-.0272149{col 78}{space 3}-.0062484
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.633204{col 37}{space 2} .1686704{col 48}{space 1}    9.68{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.302616{col 78}{space 3} 1.963792
{txt}{space 12}1.DefPactPT {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .6092955{col 37}{space 2} .0861274{col 48}{space 1}    7.07{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .440489{col 78}{space 3} .7781021
{txt}{space 7}1.sanct_severity {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0553006{col 37}{space 2} .0573224{col 48}{space 1}   -0.96{col 57}{space 3}0.335{col 65}{space 4}-.1676504{col 78}{space 3} .0570492
{txt}{space 5}idealpointdistance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2492225{col 37}{space 2} .0276455{col 48}{space 1}    9.01{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1950382{col 78}{space 3} .3034067
{txt}{space 15}duration {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .147639{col 37}{space 2} .0049653{col 48}{space 1}   29.73{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1379072{col 78}{space 3} .1573708
{txt}{space 9}arcsin_mindist {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2867467{col 37}{space 2} .0100905{col 48}{space 1}  -28.42{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.3065238{col 78}{space 3}-.2669696
{txt}{space 13}nobust_1sd {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.176707{col 37}{space 2} .0445239{col 48}{space 1}  -26.43{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.263973{col 78}{space 3}-1.089442
{txt}{space 11}nobustsq_1sd {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0720461{col 37}{space 2} .0098042{col 48}{space 1}    7.35{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0528302{col 78}{space 3}  .091262
{txt}{space 11}nobustcb_1sd {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0016574{col 37}{space 2} .0004285{col 48}{space 1}   -3.87{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0024972{col 78}{space 3}-.0008175
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-17.49423{col 37}{space 2} 1.664516{col 48}{space 1}  -10.51{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-20.75662{col 78}{space 3}-14.23184
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 1405 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Data that comes from this command produces the # of incidents of sanctions busting 
. *and is added to Table 3 & Table 4a:
. tab allbuster_1sd if e(sample)

{txt}allbuster_1 {c |}
         sd {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}     92,684       96.62       96.62
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      3,247        3.38      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}     95,931      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. ******* MODEL 5: 5 Percent ****************
. *5% threshold (Early, Early and Spice) 
. eststo M5: logit allbuster lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp i.DefPactPT i.sanct_sev idealpointdistance duration arcsin_min nobust nobustsq nobustcb if P_Sender !=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -11195.66}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8474.7435}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6015.0243}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5115.5922}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5030.8266}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5019.3317}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5014.5458}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5012.5524}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5012.4693}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5012.4693}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 56}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:95,931}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:13})}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:4698.08}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-5012.4693}{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.5523}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}              allbuster{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 4.500541{col 37}{space 2} .6143162{col 48}{space 1}    7.33{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 3.296504{col 78}{space 3} 5.704579
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .7927596{col 37}{space 2} .0167986{col 48}{space 1}   47.19{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .7598348{col 78}{space 3} .8256843
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3897129{col 37}{space 2} .2147971{col 48}{space 1}    1.81{col 57}{space 3}0.070{col 65}{space 4}-.0312817{col 78}{space 3} .8107076
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0151594{col 37}{space 2} .0061569{col 48}{space 1}   -2.46{col 57}{space 3}0.014{col 65}{space 4}-.0272268{col 78}{space 3}-.0030921
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.615246{col 37}{space 2} .1511516{col 48}{space 1}   10.69{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.318995{col 78}{space 3} 1.911498
{txt}{space 12}1.DefPactPT {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .7490153{col 37}{space 2}  .095827{col 48}{space 1}    7.82{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .5611979{col 78}{space 3} .9368327
{txt}{space 7}1.sanct_severity {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.003455{col 37}{space 2} .0642078{col 48}{space 1}   -0.05{col 57}{space 3}0.957{col 65}{space 4}-.1292999{col 78}{space 3} .1223899
{txt}{space 5}idealpointdistance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2952788{col 37}{space 2}  .031332{col 48}{space 1}    9.42{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2338692{col 78}{space 3} .3566884
{txt}{space 15}duration {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1375507{col 37}{space 2} .0052593{col 48}{space 1}   26.15{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1272427{col 78}{space 3} .1478586
{txt}{space 9}arcsin_mindist {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.294682{col 37}{space 2} .0112275{col 48}{space 1}  -26.25{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.3166874{col 78}{space 3}-.2726766
{txt}{space 17}nobust {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.221843{col 37}{space 2} .0457628{col 48}{space 1}  -26.70{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.311536{col 78}{space 3}-1.132149
{txt}{space 15}nobustsq {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0814871{col 37}{space 2}  .008777{col 48}{space 1}    9.28{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0642846{col 78}{space 3} .0986896
{txt}{space 15}nobustcb {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0019411{col 37}{space 2}  .000371{col 48}{space 1}   -5.23{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0026683{col 78}{space 3} -.001214
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-17.81068{col 37}{space 2} 1.906812{col 48}{space 1}   -9.34{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-21.54797{col 78}{space 3} -14.0734
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 1548 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Data that comes from this command produces the # of incidents of sanctions busting 
. *and is added to Table 3 & Table 4b:
. tab allbuster if e(sample)

  {txt}allbuster {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}     93,538       97.51       97.51
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      2,393        2.49      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}     95,931      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. ******* MODEL 6: 2 standard deviations ****************
. *2 standard deviations
. eststo M6: logit allbuster_2sd lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp i.DefPactPT i.sanct_sev idealpointdistance duration arcsin_min nobust_2sd nobustsq_2sd nobustcb_2sd if P_Sender !=1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8009.6948}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-6367.0454}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-4877.9668}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3941.4444}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3613.4113}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -3565.724}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3564.7852}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3564.7839}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-3564.7839}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 56}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:95,931}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:13})}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:5401.03}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-3564.7839}{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.5549}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}          allbuster_2sd{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 4.152597{col 37}{space 2} .5843888{col 48}{space 1}    7.11{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 3.007216{col 78}{space 3} 5.297978
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .6276747{col 37}{space 2} .0226357{col 48}{space 1}   27.73{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .5833096{col 78}{space 3} .6720399
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .617877{col 37}{space 2} .2559154{col 48}{space 1}    2.41{col 57}{space 3}0.016{col 65}{space 4}  .116292{col 78}{space 3} 1.119462
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0247291{col 37}{space 2} .0072936{col 48}{space 1}   -3.39{col 57}{space 3}0.001{col 65}{space 4}-.0390243{col 78}{space 3}-.0104338
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.226667{col 37}{space 2} .1109349{col 48}{space 1}   11.06{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.009238{col 78}{space 3} 1.444095
{txt}{space 12}1.DefPactPT {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .4236012{col 37}{space 2} .1255542{col 48}{space 1}    3.37{col 57}{space 3}0.001{col 65}{space 4} .1775196{col 78}{space 3} .6696829
{txt}{space 7}1.sanct_severity {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2467761{col 37}{space 2} .0778551{col 48}{space 1}    3.17{col 57}{space 3}0.002{col 65}{space 4} .0941829{col 78}{space 3} .3993693
{txt}{space 5}idealpointdistance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0567169{col 37}{space 2} .0413044{col 48}{space 1}    1.37{col 57}{space 3}0.170{col 65}{space 4}-.0242381{col 78}{space 3}  .137672
{txt}{space 15}duration {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1664426{col 37}{space 2} .0135469{col 48}{space 1}  -12.29{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -.192994{col 78}{space 3}-.1398911
{txt}{space 9}arcsin_mindist {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2616751{col 37}{space 2} .0144327{col 48}{space 1}  -18.13{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.2899626{col 78}{space 3}-.2333876
{txt}{space 13}nobust_2sd {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.551622{col 37}{space 2} .0769828{col 48}{space 1}   20.16{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.400739{col 78}{space 3} 1.702506
{txt}{space 11}nobustsq_2sd {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1259383{col 37}{space 2} .0142707{col 48}{space 1}   -8.82{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.1539084{col 78}{space 3}-.0979682
{txt}{space 11}nobustcb_2sd {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0033275{col 37}{space 2} .0005771{col 48}{space 1}    5.77{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0021964{col 78}{space 3} .0044586
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -17.3236{col 37}{space 2} 2.333496{col 48}{space 1}   -7.42{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-21.89716{col 78}{space 3}-12.75003
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 11 failures and 6 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Data that comes from this command produces the # of incidents of sanctions busting 
. *and is added to Table 3 & Table 4b:
. tab allbuster_2sd if e(sample)

{txt}allbuster_2 {c |}
         sd {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}     94,362       98.36       98.36
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      1,569        1.64      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}     95,931      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. ******* MODEL 7: US Sanctions Only Use 1% Threshold ****************
. *US Sanctions Only using 1pct Threshold
. eststo M7: logit allbuster_1pct lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp i.DefPactPT i.sanct_sev idealpointdistance duration arcsin_min sender_tradeshare nobust_1pct nobustsq_1pct nobustcb_1pct if P_Sender !=1 & US_Sanctions==1, robust

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-21951.049}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-15555.454}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-11615.525}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10156.037}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10030.695}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10014.482}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10008.432}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-10007.723}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -10007.71}  
Iteration 9:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -10007.71}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 56}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:71,520}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Wald chi2({res:14})}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:8323.28}
{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 9:-10007.71}{txt}{col 56}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 69} = {res}{ralign 7:0.5441}

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}         allbuster_1pct{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}lagts3p {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 7.210524{col 37}{space 2} .9823054{col 48}{space 1}    7.34{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 5.285241{col 78}{space 3} 9.135807
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .6169111{col 37}{space 2} .0123306{col 48}{space 1}   50.03{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .5927435{col 78}{space 3} .6410787
{txt}{space 14}lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3688745{col 37}{space 2} .1523629{col 48}{space 1}    2.42{col 57}{space 3}0.015{col 65}{space 4} .0702487{col 78}{space 3} .6675003
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
c.lnlaggdpt#c.lnlaggdpt {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0110201{col 37}{space 2} .0043235{col 48}{space 1}   -2.55{col 57}{space 3}0.011{col 65}{space 4}-.0194941{col 78}{space 3}-.0025462
{txt}{space 23} {c |}
{space 10}lagtradeopenp {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.429863{col 37}{space 2} .1791603{col 48}{space 1}    7.98{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.078716{col 78}{space 3} 1.781011
{txt}{space 12}1.DefPactPT {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .515677{col 37}{space 2}  .077848{col 48}{space 1}    6.62{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .3630977{col 78}{space 3} .6682563
{txt}{space 7}1.sanct_severity {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1635889{col 37}{space 2} .0460162{col 48}{space 1}   -3.56{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.2537791{col 78}{space 3}-.0733988
{txt}{space 5}idealpointdistance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2674421{col 37}{space 2} .0211241{col 48}{space 1}   12.66{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2260397{col 78}{space 3} .3088444
{txt}{space 15}duration {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1210963{col 37}{space 2} .0037184{col 48}{space 1}   32.57{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1138084{col 78}{space 3} .1283843
{txt}{space 9}arcsin_mindist {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2416558{col 37}{space 2} .0096553{col 48}{space 1}  -25.03{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.2605798{col 78}{space 3}-.2227318
{txt}{space 6}sender_tradeshare {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 3.557858{col 37}{space 2} .4768917{col 48}{space 1}    7.46{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 2.623167{col 78}{space 3} 4.492548
{txt}{space 12}nobust_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.042432{col 37}{space 2} .0272786{col 48}{space 1}  -38.21{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.095897{col 78}{space 3} -.988967
{txt}{space 10}nobustsq_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .060177{col 37}{space 2} .0048809{col 48}{space 1}   12.33{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0506106{col 78}{space 3} .0697433
{txt}{space 10}nobustcb_1pct {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0013098{col 37}{space 2} .0001918{col 48}{space 1}   -6.83{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0016858{col 78}{space 3}-.0009339
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-14.32364{col 37}{space 2} 1.380358{col 48}{space 1}  -10.38{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-17.02909{col 78}{space 3}-11.61818
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 1089 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
. *Data that comes from this command produces the # of incidents of sanctions busting and is added to Table 4b:
. tab allbuster_1pct if e(sample)

{txt}allbuster_1 {c |}
        pct {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}     64,947       90.81       90.81
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      6,573        9.19      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}     71,520      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***REGRESSION TABLES
. ***Regression Tables in the paper refer to Tables 4a and 4b
. ***Some minor edits by hand may be needed for labels and other minor adjustments
. 
. *Create Table 4a for screen viewing:
. esttab M1 M2 M3a M4, se scalars(ll) aic bic pr2 label compress replace
{res}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}                       (1)          (2)          (3)          (4)   
{txt}                 allbu~ian    allbu~ean    allbust~t    allbu~1sd   
{txt}{hline 68}
{res}main                                                                {txt}
{txt}Commercial De~1 {res}     1.384***     4.756***     4.743***     5.862***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.268{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.350{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.373{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.497{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Economic Size,~y{res}     0.310***     0.602***     0.658***     0.767***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00533{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00881{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00982{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0146{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Economic Size,~t{res}    -0.689***     0.291**      0.457***     0.445*  {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0721{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.108{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.124{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.187{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Economic Size,~c{res}    0.0250***  -0.00934**    -0.0146***   -0.0167** {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00204{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00306{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00355{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00535{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Commercial Ope~s{res}     1.307***     1.781***     1.750***     1.633***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.202{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.409{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.336{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.169{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Defense Pact=0  {res}         0            0            0            0   {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Defense Pact=1  {res}     0.257***     0.533***     0.607***     0.609***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0427{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0565{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0610{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0861{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Sanctions Seve~0{res}         0            0            0            0   {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Sanctions Seve~1{res}    -0.151***   -0.0719*     -0.0654      -0.0553   {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0235{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0341{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0378{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0573{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Ideal Point Di~){res}   -0.0154        0.120***     0.150***     0.249***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0117{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0163{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0182{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0276{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Sanctions Dura~n{res}     0.180***     0.143***     0.140***     0.148***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00329{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00307{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00347{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00497{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Minimum Distance{res}   -0.0987***    -0.236***    -0.249***    -0.287***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00611{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00746{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00800{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0101{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nobust_median   {res}    -0.818***                                       {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00982{txt:)}}                                          {txt}

{txt}nobustsq_median {res}    0.0155***                                       {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.000999{txt:)}}                                          {txt}

{txt}nobustcb_mean   {res} -0.000152*** -0.000974***                          {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00000916{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.000181{txt:)}}                             {txt}

{txt}nobust_mean     {res}                 -1.005***                          {txt}
                {res}              {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0226{txt:)}}                             {txt}

{txt}nobustsq_mean   {res}                 0.0495***                          {txt}
                {res}              {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00452{txt:)}}                             {txt}

{txt}nobust_1pct     {res}                              -1.077***             {txt}
                {res}                           {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0237{txt:)}}                {txt}

{txt}nobustsq_1pct   {res}                              0.0595***             {txt}
                {res}                           {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00453{txt:)}}                {txt}

{txt}nobustcb_1pct   {res}                            -0.00127***             {txt}
                {res}                           {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.000182{txt:)}}                {txt}

{txt}nobust_1sd      {res}                                           -1.177***{txt}
                {res}                                        {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0445{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nobustsq_1sd    {res}                                           0.0720***{txt}
                {res}                                        {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00980{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nobustcb_1sd    {res}                                         -0.00166***{txt}
                {res}                                        {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.000429{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant        {res}    -0.831       -12.81***    -15.34***    -17.49***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.646{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.969{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}1.114{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}1.665{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Observations    {res}     95931        95931        95931        95931   {txt}
{txt}Pseudo R-squared{res}     0.464        0.527        0.541        0.556   {txt}
{txt}AIC             {res}   64174.3      32755.8      26818.3      12624.5   {txt}
{txt}BIC             {res}   64306.9      32888.4      26950.9      12757.1   {txt}
{txt}ll              {res}  -32073.1     -16363.9     -13395.1      -6298.3   {txt}
{txt}{hline 68}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

{com}. 
. *Creates Table 4a for export:
. esttab M1 M2 M3a M4 using "table_new_rr1.rtf", se scalars(ll) aic bic pr2 label compress replace
{res}{txt}(output written to {browse  `"table_new_rr1.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. *Creates Table 4b on the screen:
. esttab M5 M6 M7, se scalars(ll) aic bic pr2 label compress replace
{res}
{txt}{hline 55}
{txt}                       (1)          (2)          (3)   
{txt}                 allbuster    allbu~2sd    allbust~t   
{txt}{hline 55}
{res}main                                                   {txt}
{txt}Commercial De~1 {res}     4.501***     4.153***     7.211***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.614{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.584{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.982{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Economic Size,~y{res}     0.793***     0.628***     0.617***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0168{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0226{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0123{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Economic Size,~t{res}     0.390        0.618*       0.369*  {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.215{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.256{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.152{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Economic Size,~c{res}   -0.0152*     -0.0247***   -0.0110*  {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00616{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00729{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00432{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Commercial Ope~s{res}     1.615***     1.227***     1.430***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.151{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.111{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.179{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Defense Pact=0  {res}         0            0            0   {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Defense Pact=1  {res}     0.749***     0.424***     0.516***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0958{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.126{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0778{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Sanctions Seve~0{res}         0            0            0   {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}.{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Sanctions Seve~1{res}  -0.00346        0.247**     -0.164***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0642{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0779{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0460{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Ideal Point Di~){res}     0.295***    0.0567        0.267***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0313{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0413{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0211{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Sanctions Dura~n{res}     0.138***    -0.166***     0.121***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00526{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0135{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00372{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Minimum Distance{res}    -0.295***    -0.262***    -0.242***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0112{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0144{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00966{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Years of No Bu~g{res}    -1.222***                          {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0458{txt:)}}                             {txt}

{txt}Years of No Bu~d{res}    0.0815***                          {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00878{txt:)}}                             {txt}

{txt}Years of No Bu~d{res}  -0.00194***                          {txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.000371{txt:)}}                             {txt}

{txt}nobust_2sd      {res}                  1.552***             {txt}
                {res}              {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0770{txt:)}}                {txt}

{txt}nobustsq_2sd    {res}                 -0.126***             {txt}
                {res}              {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0143{txt:)}}                {txt}

{txt}nobustcb_2sd    {res}                0.00333***             {txt}
                {res}              {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.000577{txt:)}}                {txt}

{txt}Commercial Dep~A{res}                               3.558***{txt}
                {res}                           {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.477{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nobust_1pct     {res}                              -1.042***{txt}
                {res}                           {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.0273{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nobustsq_1pct   {res}                              0.0602***{txt}
                {res}                           {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.00488{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nobustcb_1pct   {res}                            -0.00131***{txt}
                {res}                           {ralign 9:{txt:(}0.000192{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}Constant        {res}    -17.81***    -17.32***    -14.32***{txt}
                {res} {ralign 9:{txt:(}1.907{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}2.333{txt:)}}    {ralign 9:{txt:(}1.380{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 55}
{txt}Observations    {res}     95931        95931        71520   {txt}
{txt}Pseudo R-squared{res}     0.552        0.555        0.544   {txt}
{txt}AIC             {res}   10052.9       7157.6      20045.4   {txt}
{txt}BIC             {res}   10185.5       7290.2      20183.1   {txt}
{txt}ll              {res}   -5012.5      -3564.8     -10007.7   {txt}
{txt}{hline 55}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

{com}. 
. *Exports Table 4b for export:
. esttab M5 M6 M7 using "table_new_rr2.rtf", se scalars(ll) aic bic pr2 label compress replace
{res}{txt}(output written to {browse  `"table_new_rr2.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. 
. **TO CREATE FIGURE 2, FOLLOW THESE INSTRUCTIONS**
. *Load Data Set
. use sanctions_events.dta, clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Set environment
. set scheme plotplainblind
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Run Bar Graph
. graph bar (count) caseid, over(target_gdp_graph, relabel(1 "Smallest-sized" ///
>         2 "Small-sized" ///
>         3 "Medium-sized" ///
>         4 "Large-sized" ///
>         5 "Largest-sized")) ///
>         asyvars over(year, label(ticks tlcolor(black) angle(45) labsize(vsmall))) /// 
>         legend(position(6) cols(5)) stack title("Economic Sanctions in Force by Economic Size (1962-2011)") ///
>         ytitle("Economic Sanctions in Force") 
{res}{txt}
{com}.         
. 
.         
.         
. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/keithpreble/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/Replication Files for FPA/goldilocks.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res} 2 Feb 2023, 20:34:56
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}